EURUSD Outside bar price action trading strategy trade signal analysis

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Trends that have been going on for long are more likely to have a reversal than new trends. And the longer a trend lasts, the bigger the potential reversal. So, it might be a good idea to try and trade this strategy on extended trends.


If red downward pointing arrows of the Fastsignals custom indicator forms above price bars, while price develops around its upper red dotted line, a sell is most apt. The best hypothetical results are achieved by trading only the candle that closes at Noon GMT (55.68% winning trades from a total of 88 trades). The candle closing at 4pm GMT also produces a positive edge (53.72% winning trades of a total of 121 trades).

When the reaches an extreme price in the trader’s view, it often pulls back from the price only to return to that price level again. On seeing a signal bar, a trader would take it as a sign that the market direction is about to turn. A small correction of one to five lines that occurs within the break-up lines, because it is usually expected that the break through will resume, and the pull-back is a preparation for recovery. For example, if one of the five lines breaks through the bear market trend line, but we think this trend will continue, we will consider shorting this sign, rather than buying it back immediately after breaking through.

Furthermore, the resistance was powerful enough to cause the current bar to close lower. We would place a buy stop order just above the high or if watching real time, hit the buy button once price breaks the high of the candlestick. The overall trend direction is up and the daily chart, using the weekly context of outside candle, gives you places to buy and either sell out or tighten stops. Unlike the inside bar that is completely inside the previous bar, the outside bar candlestick takes out both the high and the low of the previous bar. Traders who use this strategy hope to take advantage of an already established trend.

Market Overview: Weekend Market Analysis

Most prior bear bars in buy climaxes on the monthly chart led to a 2nd bear bar within a bar or two. That means the bears hope that November rallies and then reverses down at the end of the month to close below the open of the month. After a big bull breakout on Thursday, there was an even bigger reversal down on Friday. It was also a 2nd failed attempt to get back above the August 20 low. There is always at least a 40% chance that the opposite of what is likely will happen. Consequently, there is at least a 40% chance that the selloff will continue down to near the bottom of the 7-year trading range.

Before opening a trade, you should check the direction of the trend for several higher timeframes. And then pay keen attention only to the candles that appear during pullbacks and corrections. The chart starts off with a bullish price move, which ends with a bearish pin bar candle formation. The longer wick of the pattern goes above the general price action, which confirms the authenticity of the candle. The same is true for bearish pin bars but in the opposite direction.

  • When the trader finds that the price action signals are strong enough, the trader tend to continue to wait for the appropriate entry point or exit point.
  • Each bar on a bar chart represents price performance for a specific period.
  • Higher volume on the chart at the candlestick pattern area versus the average volume on a chart increases the odds of the reversal signal being meaningful.
  • Also, price action analysis can be subject to survivorship bias for failed traders do not gain visibility.

Now, you’ll learn how to use the Inside Bar strategy to catch the trend. Opening price at the bottom of the range indicates that buyers are incontrol. Outside days have both a higher high and a lower low than the previous day. Inside days have a lower high and a higher low when compared to the preceding bar. The move-up since October 13 is in a tight bull channel which means relentless bulls. For now, the odds favor at least slightly higher prices in November.

Interpreting Bar Charts

After an inside bar, the “Fakey” trader waits for a breakout and an immediate reversal into the opposite direction. Basically, the “Fakey” describes a false breakout pattern and it can improve the accuracy of the trading method. The inside bar shows a market contraction and a consolidation period often just before a reversal. The inside bar pattern consists of three candlesticks where the second forms completely inside the previous bar, hence the name. The small candle inside the larger previous one shows the contraction and a period of market indecision. If the trading range lasts 20 or more bars, the probability of a reversal into a bear trend begins to get close to 50%.

This time, it’s more of a reversal pattern because it formed at a resistance level, causing a false break of that resistance level and then set off a move to the downside. This combo pattern again allowed a trader to get a ‘tight’ entry by entering as the inside bar retraced up the pin bar’s tail, the stop loss could have been placed just above the resistance level or near the pin bar’s high. We can see a dramatic sell-off unfolded as price broke down below the inside bar. What matters most, however, is that the closing price of the bullish candlestick is way higher than the closing price of the previous bearish candlestick. This is when one can say that the bullish outside bar candlestick pattern has formed. The outside bar candlestick pattern makes use of the bullish and bearish engulfing candlesticks, two of the most powerful candlestick patterns in forex.

So What Is An Outside Bar Forex Pattern?

This outside bar trading usually involves a small-sized candlestick beside a big-sized one. And as you’ll soon learn, this pattern is often signifying a trend continuation or a reversal. An outside reversal pattern is typically one of the more precise candlestick patterns; however, these patterns require a strict definition to be useful forecasting tools. Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies. However, plenty of profitable pin bars occur in the markets within a narrow range or significant trend reversal levels. Also, try combining the pin bar pattern with supports and resistances, trend lines, Fibonacci retracement levels, or moving averages.

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Here’s another example of trading an inside bar against the recent trend / momentum and from a key chart level. In this case, we were trading an inside bar reversal signal from a key level of resistance. Also, note that the inside bar sell signal in the example below actually had two bars within the same mother bar, this is perfectly fine and is something you will see sometimes on the charts. Once you have identified a potential outside bar setup, the next step is to look for key levels of support and resistance that could trigger the setup. Support and resistance levels are areas on the chart where the price has bounced off in the past or where the price has struggled to break through. With an outside bar strategy, you are looking for the price movement of one period to break through the entire range of the previous period.

Trade Entry Tips When Using the Outside Bar Candlestick Pattern

The fact that it is technically neither an H1 nor an H2 is ignored in the light of the trend strength. This price action reflects what is occurring in the shorter time-frame and is sub-optimal but pragmatic when entry signals into the strong trend are otherwise not appearing. A bullish engulfing bar that forms at a support level after a bearish trend shows that participants reversed their sentiment within only one candle.

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Some patterns can often only be described subjectively, and a textbook pattern formation may occur in reality with great variations. Its small body forms at the top, along with a long shadow pointing down. This shows that when the sellers pushed the prices down, the bulls jumped up, pushing the prices higher.

The longer wick of the candle sticks out above the recent price action. In general, when trading pin bars, speculators should look for big candle wicks forming beyond the recent price action after a prolonged price move. However, pin bars can also be valid during a trend, as prices are taking a pause or taking a breather prior to the resumption of that trend.

  • Outside reversal is also known as either a bullish engulfing or a bearish engulfing pattern when observed on candlestick charts.
  • The objective of this technique is to gain a probabilistic edge that should let the trader earn in the long run.
  • One way to confirm the trade entry points is to wait for the outside bar setup to close.
  • For example, if you are looking to enter a bearish outside bar you would be waiting for price to move below the low of the outside bar before then entering.
  • This is because the outside bar has already moved a great deal and the next 2-3 candlesticks may be digesting the move that just happened.
  • When the market is trending, it is hard to sustain a counter-trend pullback.

The bulls keep coming back, pushing the probability of another leg up back up to 60% . As I have been saying, even if the bears get a correction, the bull trend is so strong that the bulls will buy it, expecting at least a test of the high. But unless the bears get consecutive big bear bars closing near the lows, the odds continue to favor at least slightly higher prices.

bearish reversal bar

Inside and outside bars are quite popular among price action traders – for good reasons. Although trading single candlestick patterns is usually not a robust trading approach, if such candlestick patterns are traded within the right chart context, it is possible to create more robust signals. One break-out above the previous highest high or ceiling of a trading range is termed a higher high.

It is a simple trading strategy that has very few rules or needed indicators. Avoid trading them without some other variable such as support/resistance zones. If the trade moves against you, you might want to adjust your stop loss order closer to the price to limit potential losses. Price is extended below the 20 simple moving average with 7 red candles pushing price down on this 4-hour chart. The Price action course is the in-depth advanced training on assessing, making and managing high probability price action trades. For entry you can either use a confirmation entry or a retrace entry.

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